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SUBSCRIBER MODEL
Model ran · 8:05 AM · System live

THE
MODEL
RUNS.

Data-driven CCR picks. Every morning. No gut calls.

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8:05
Daily Runtime · AM
3
Independent Models
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Season Record
Track record

THE LEDGER

Every pick posted publicly. Every result recorded. We don't cherry-pick wins.

Free published picks · CCR 7+ threshold

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Every game on the slate. Full model breakdown, CCR ratings, and the complete pick card — not just the teaser.

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Under the hood

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Three independent engines run every morning. One consensus output. No opinions.

01
Data Scrape
Live game logs, rest days, back-to-backs, team ratings, injury context, and historical matchup data pulled fresh every morning via Playwright.
02
Rule Engine + ELO
A rule-based model scores every matchup on net rating, pace, fatigue index, and form. An ELO + XGBoost model trained on a decade of data produces win probability and predicted margin.
03
Consensus + Publish
All three outputs cross-referenced. Agreement scoring produces a unified CCR rating. Only plays above threshold qualify. Report published automatically with social cards by 8:05 AM.
Our rating system

WHAT IS CCR?

The CERSports Confidence Rating is a 0–100 score produced by our consensus model. It measures how much edge the system has detected across all three models combined.

90+
Elite
Full model agreement. Rare. Maximum edge detected.
80–89
Strong
Standard qualifier for posted picks. Strong consensus.
68–79
Solid
Solid data lean. Below our posting threshold.
<68
Noise
We don't post what the model doesn't believe in.
Free picks daily

FOLLOW THE MODEL

Picks drop every morning after the 8:05 run. Follow us on every platform and never miss a qualifying CCR play.